S&P Global Cuts India’s Growth Forecasts

S&P Global has cut its growth forecasts for Asia’s top economies including India

S&P Global cut its growth forecasts for some of Asia’s top economies including India, the Philippines and Malaysia on Monday, offsetting upgrades to China and South Africa and much of Latin America.

The estimates, which feed into S&P’s closely-followed sovereign ratings, saw India’s growth projection chopped to 9.5 per cent from 11 per cent due to its COVID-19 outbreak, the Philippines’ lowered to 6 per cent from 7.9 per cent and Malaysia’s downgraded to 4.1 per cent from 6.2 per cent.

In contrast, China’s forecast was nudged up to 8.3 per cent from 8 per cent, Brazil’s was hoisted to 4.7 per cent from 3.4 per cent, Mexico’s to 5.8 per cent from 4.9 per cent while those of South Africa, Poland and Russia were lifted to 4.2 per cent, 4.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively, from 3.6 per cent, 3.4 per cent and 3.3 per cent.

“The top risk facing emerging market economies is a slower-than-expected rollout of the vaccines,” S&P’s economists said in new report, adding that the pandemic would only subside once vaccinations “reach a level consistent with herd immunity”.

In Asia’s emerging economies, vaccines are currently being administered at a rate of 0.2 doses per 100 people per day. At this rate, S&P estimated it would take another 23 months for 70 per cent of emerging market Asia’s population to be fully vaccinated.

The second big risk facing emerging economies, it said, was if strong US growth and inflation cause an early tightening of US monetary policy which then pushes up the dollar and makes servicing debt denominated in the US currency more costly.

“While emerging market policymakers can’t control US inflation dynamics and the policy response, they can implement measures to influence domestic growth. In the context of the current pandemic, a key measure is stepping up vaccinations,” S&P said.